In 2025, China's economic and social development "task list" has been released, highlighting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Among the key measures are strengthening industrial regulation, achieving quality upgrades to break the "involution", continuously implementing crude steel production control, and promoting the reduction and reorganization of the steel industry. These initiatives are set to significantly impact the downstream markets of steel pipes and steel sheets.
For the steel pipe market, the ongoing regulation of crude steel output will likely lead to a reduction in raw material supply for pipe manufacturing. This could initially limit production capacity. However, in terms of market demand, with infrastructure construction still being a major driver, especially in emerging economies, the demand for steel pipes in areas such as water and gas transportation and construction frameworks remains relatively stable. In 2024, China's steel pipe exports showed a positive trend, with a total export volume of 1105.24, increasing by 24.15% year-on-year. The export growth is expected to continue in 2025, mainly driven by the global economic recovery and infrastructure expansion in many countries. In terms of price, the initial decrease in raw material availability might push prices upward. But in the long run, competition and technological advancements could mitigate this increase. Steel pipes may account for around 10 - 15% of the overall steel product mix.
The steel sheet market will also experience notable changes. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, which are major consumers of steel sheets, the market demand may face headwinds due to the slowdown in these industries. With regard to price, the control of crude steel production will influence the supply of sheet raw materials, potentially providing some price support. However, intense competition and the emergence of alternative materials will cap price hikes. In terms of exports, China's steel sheet exports face growing challenges from global trade protectionism. The proportion of steel sheets in the overall steel products is estimated to be around 60 - 70%.
The 2025 tasks for traditional industry transformation will reshape the downstream markets of steel pipes and steel sheets. Enterprises in these sectors need to adapt to market changes, enhance innovation, and optimize production strategies to maintain competitiveness.