On March 4, 2025, the South Korean government officially announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation on hot-rolled steel coils (hot coils) from China and Japan. The investigation was filed by Hyundai Steel of South Korea, which accused hot coil products from China and Japan of being dumped, causing harm to the domestic steel industry in South Korea.
According to the announcement by the Korea Trade Commission (KTC), the preliminary investigation is expected to be completed by the end of March, and then it will enter the substantive investigation stage. The overall investigation period may be extended by two months. The investigation covers hot-rolled products of carbon steel and alloy steel, involving multiple customs codes such as HSK 7208, 7211, 7225, and 7226. However, hot-rolled medium and heavy plates, coated or plated products, and stainless steel products are excluded from the scope of this investigation.
Data from SteelHome shows that in 2024, China's total steel exports to South Korea reached 8.193 million tons, accounting for 7% of China's total global steel exports. South Korea is the second-largest region for China's steel exports. In 2024, the total volume of China's hot coil exports to South Korea was 1.607 million tons, accounting for 19.6% of the total volume of steel exports to South Korea. This anti-dumping investigation by South Korea mainly targets hot coils. The affected products accounted for 97.75% of China's total hot coil exports to South Korea in 2024, with a volume of 1.564 million tons, almost covering all hot-rolled coil products. The total volume of relevant hot coil products exported to the world in 2024 was 28.164 million tons, and the volume affected in South Korea accounted for 5.5%.
In terms of the overall volume, if the impact of the previously imposed temporary anti-dumping duties by South Korea on Chinese stainless-steel medium and heavy plates is added, the overall affected volume of medium and heavy plates and hot coils has reached 3 million tons. Excluding the already implemented US steel import tariffs, the anti-dumping measures on Vietnamese hot-rolled steel, and the South Korean anti-dumping on Chinese medium and heavy plates, the total volume of steel exports affected has exceeded 10 million tons.
Furthermore, on February 11, the Indian Minister of Steel stated that India may impose temporary tariffs of 15% - 25% on steel products from China within the next six months. According to SteelHome data, in 2024, the total volume of Chinese steel exports to India reached 3 million tons, accounting for 2.7% of China's total steel exports. If the subsequent anti-dumping measures are implemented, the pressure on China's steel exports will be further intensified.
In response to South Korea's anti-dumping investigation, the Chinese steel industry is taking a series of countermeasures. Industry associations play a crucial coordinating role. They are organizing relevant steel enterprises to actively respond to the investigation. By gathering data on production costs, export prices, and market conditions, these associations are helping enterprises prepare strong defense materials. This includes providing accurate information on the normal value of products, demonstrating that Chinese steel products are not being dumped but are competitively priced based on normal market operations.
Steel enterprises in China are also making strategic adjustments. Some are focusing on improving product quality and adding more value to their products. By investing in research and development, they are developing high-end steel products with better performance and unique features. This not only helps them meet the diverse needs of the international market but also reduces their reliance on low-cost competition. For example, some companies are developing special steel products for the aerospace and automotive industries, which have higher profit margins and are less likely to be affected by anti-dumping investigations.
In addition, Chinese steel enterprises are exploring new markets. Given the increasing trade barriers in some traditional markets, they are looking for opportunities in emerging economies in Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. These regions have growing infrastructure construction demands, creating a large market for steel products. By establishing local sales networks, joint ventures, or even building production bases overseas, Chinese steel enterprises can directly access these new markets, bypassing some of the trade barriers and reducing the impact of anti-dumping investigations.
This series of anti-dumping investigations and potential tariff impositions not only pose challenges to the Chinese steel industry's export market but also have implications for the global steel trade landscape. It remains to be seen how China will respond to these situations and safeguard the interests of its steel industry in the international trade arena.